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Thursday, January 15, 2009

Seeing Beyond The Number

In the brutal global market where so many are losing much, it is hard to find any organization that look like it will emerge as a clear winner from the current financial turmoil. But the international Monetary Fund (IMF), which had beed on the ropes, appears to the winner. With countries around the world rushing to request its ads, the IMF has found itself thrust back into in old familiar role, rescuing economies in crisis.

Getting its old job back is not the IMF only recent coup, through. As politician and market the financial meltdown we are currently experiencing won’t be repeated, the IMF has suddenly more powerful additional role as a pseudo global regulator.

Clearly, the IMF relishes its new-found prominence. The revived and rehabilitated lender has a huge and complex task to perform now, though. As the world leaders at the recent G-20 meeting in Washington, DC, made abundantly clear, they are counting on the IMF to be on the lookout for signs of future financial distress around the world and to provide a timely warning so the powers that can deal with the problem before it becomes a crisis.

If the IMF can be trusted to perform its new duties responsibly and fairly then it makes perfect sense for it to adopt some form of global oversight. That is a very big “if” indeed, though. The IMF is already involved in-and recognized in – many markets around the world and it has a huge and talented team of economists at its disposal. Its track record, however is less than stellar and – at least as far as its crisis are concerned – its loyalties lie with the large, developed economies of the West. It also has a major credibility problem, particularly among countries in the Asia-pacific region, many of which consider the IMF to have caused more problem than it solved when it waded into the Asian financial crisis of 199.

The IMF response to the current crisis does give some cause for the optimism. It has reacted in a measured and open-minded way to request for help from nations such as Iceland, Hungary, Ukraine and Pakistan and has shown less of the heavy-handedness for which in became known during previous crises.

Part of the problem in the past has been that the IMF tended to focus more on pure, hard economics and less on people. If it can recognize that the population of the countries it serves are made up of real, often vulnerable people and not just units of production, there is every reason to believe the IMF can rise to this new challenge. If it doesn’t many tens of millions of people will be facing a needlessly bleak future.

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