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Saturday, March 21, 2009

Economic Influences - Question 36

I watch Wall Street Week every Friday on PBS and enjoy it. However, I’m totally confused after seeing this panel of experts disagree - some are bearish and others are bullish. Do you have any suggestions for making sense of dl of this?

These days we have a surplus of information - and much of that information is contradictory. It is very confusing to hear one expert give cogent reasons for the economy to perform in a certain way and then hear another expert argue forcefuI1y about why the economy is likely to move in the opposite direction. The credentials of each expert are apt to be very impressive, and this only adds to the frustration.

I sympathize. And I am reminded of a recent year-end Wall Street Week program. Each of the guests on the show was dressed formally as if he or she were attending a New Year’s Eve Party. The host reviewed each of the expert's predictions for the past year and then invited them to predict the highs and lows of the Dow Jones Industrials for the next 12 months. (The variation among the guests in predicting the year-end for the Dow varied by more than 1,000 points)

We need to keep these short-term views in perspective. The truth is, smart investors take a long-range view and invest for the long-run. If you invest over the long-run in solid companies and solid investments, then the minor ups-and-downs of the market (and of the opinions of commentators) have a minimal impact on your portfolio.

Here are some rules for long-term success: Invest in companies that are leaders in their industries and enjoy a 15% or - more annual increase m earnings over the past five year. Reinvest the dividends. Companies that are able to increase their earnings consistently regardless of the economy are usually well-run. Avoid being enticed by “bargains” in the stock market that offer “a quick killing.” Review your monthly financial statements, and do not worry about monitoring your investments every day. Remember, you're in it for the long run.

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